Sargent County vs. North Dakota Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Sargent County: 2022 Population = 3,795 2022 Percent of State = 0.49% North Dakota: 2022 Population = 779,261 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.23% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Sargent County with comparisons to North Dakota and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Sargent County vs. North Dakota's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Sargent County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Sargent County's population dropped from 6,049 in 1969 to 3,795 in 2022, for a net loss of -2,254, or -37.26%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces North Dakota's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, North Dakota's population rose from 621,000 in 1969 to 779,261 in 2022, for a net gain of 158,261, or 25.48%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Sargent County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with North Dakota, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Sargent County's overall population growth was -37.26% over 1969-2022 trailed North Dakota's increase of 25.48%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the North Dakota Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Sargent County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to North Dakota's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than North Dakota's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Sargent County's population totaled 0.97% of North Dakota's population, while in 2022 it comprised 0.49% thereby yielding a -0.49% share-shift.
Sargent County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Sargent County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Sargent County's population contracted at an annual rate of -0.87% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 2012 (2.54%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1987 (-3.46%). In 2022, Sargent County's population declined by -0.63% Sargent County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Sargent County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Sargent County's annual population growth rate averaged -0.66%. It averaged -1.97% in the 1980s, -0.56% during the 1990s, -1.13% in the 2000s, -0.02% during the 2010s, -0.80% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Sargent County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for North Dakota and the nation. As the chart reveals, Sargent County's average annual population growth fell below North Dakota's average throughout the 1970s (-0.66% vs. 0.49%), posted below North Dakota's average in the 1980s (-1.97% vs. -0.08%), trailed North Dakota's average during the 1990s (-0.56% vs. -0.03%), amounted to less than North Dakota's average throughout the 2000s (-1.13% vs. 0.32%), trailed North Dakota's average throughout the 2010s (-0.02% vs. 1.57%), and fell below North Dakota's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.80% vs. 0.12%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Sargent County recorded underneath the nation over the 1970s (-0.66% vs. 1.10%), posted below the nation over the 1980s (-1.97% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation during the 1990s (-0.56% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation during the 2000s (-1.13% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation throughout the 2010s (-0.02% vs. 0.74%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.80% vs. 0.31%).
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