Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across North Dakota Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of North Dakota's 53 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this North Dakota Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of North Dakota's 53 counties over the latest available year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
white dot
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
This figure displays the 53 counties of North Dakota as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.08%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.08% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.08%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 11 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2020, while 42 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 45 counties whose most recent (2020) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-5.37%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 8 counties whose employment growth over 2020 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 53 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.08% over 2010-2020 and -5.37% over 2020:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the five counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.08%) and near-term (-5.37%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the six counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.08%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the North Dakota average (-5.37%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the forty counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.08%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-5.37%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the two counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.08%) and near-term (-5.37%).
   
 
Summary of North Dakota's 53 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-5.37%)
Above
(-5.37%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.08%)
6
5
11
Below
(1.08%)
2
40
42
 
8
45
53
 
   
Leading Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the North Dakota counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed North Dakota's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 1.08%) as well as near-term (2020 = -5.37%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020 as noted in the table below.
Of North Dakota's 53 counties, just 5 (9%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 6 North Dakota counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2020 = 1.08%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2020 = -5.37%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Only 6 ( 11%) of North Dakota's 53 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
This figure shows the distribution of the 40 North Dakota counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2020 = 1.08%), while they outpaced North Dakota's average near-term (2020 = -5.37%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of North Dakota's 53 counties, 75% (40) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
North Dakota:
2010-2020 = 1.08%
2020 = -5.37%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 2 North Dakota counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 1.08%) as well as near-term (2020 = -5.37%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
4% of North Dakota's counties, 2 of 53, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
North Dakota
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
1.64
 
18
-2.73
928
 
8
1.59
 
33
-3.78
147,019
 
9
1.57
 
14
-2.39
17,094
 
5
3.84
 
4
-1.44
4,594
 
11
1.15
 
8
-1.77
500
Slipping Counties
 
10
1.30
 
46
-5.51
1,544
 
3
5.56
 
48
-7.31
3,320
 
1
11.15
 
53
-17.70
12,832
 
4
5.10
 
51
-11.92
7,126
 
6
2.99
 
50
-9.72
24,326
 
2
7.07
 
52
-15.78
30,894
Gaining Counties
 
41
-0.94
 
43
-4.93
1,581
 
47
-1.17
 
27
-3.40
6,816
 
40
-0.90
 
31
-3.67
3,019
 
30
-0.49
 
37
-4.08
4,236
 
12
0.90
 
32
-3.73
71,532
 
26
-0.26
 
15
-2.40
2,761
 
48
-1.20
 
24
-3.18
3,042
 
16
0.04
 
28
-3.48
1,386
 
45
-1.06
 
1
-0.48
2,068
 
24
-0.19
 
2
-0.85
2,462
 
23
-0.19
 
5
-1.47
1,205
 
17
0.04
 
41
-4.62
51,468
 
33
-0.64
 
6
-1.64
1,377
 
49
-1.28
 
19
-2.76
1,618
 
25
-0.25
 
12
-2.32
1,640
 
34
-0.70
 
7
-1.65
1,545
 
35
-0.74
 
25
-3.19
2,488
 
15
0.38
 
29
-3.53
1,339
 
19
-0.03
 
13
-2.36
2,809
 
50
-1.36
 
23
-3.12
1,799
 
22
-0.17
 
11
-2.08
5,567
 
53
-1.85
 
40
-4.57
5,496
 
52
-1.68
 
9
-1.79
1,923
 
31
-0.54
 
36
-3.98
1,205
 
44
-1.01
 
20
-2.76
4,959
 
36
-0.76
 
38
-4.36
2,761
 
20
-0.08
 
26
-3.30
8,047
 
28
-0.32
 
34
-3.93
3,231
 
51
-1.39
 
22
-2.90
1,337
 
21
-0.15
 
42
-4.77
10,339
 
46
-1.07
 
44
-5.28
5,775
 
39
-0.88
 
17
-2.64
775
 
38
-0.83
 
39
-4.56
1,905
 
18
0.01
 
35
-3.93
1,199
 
29
-0.37
 
21
-2.89
14,135
 
37
-0.82
 
3
-1.37
1,582
 
13
0.59
 
10
-2.06
4,990
 
43
-1.00
 
30
-3.60
6,899
 
14
0.57
 
45
-5.28
45,965
 
42
-0.98
 
16
-2.59
2,674
Lagging Counties
 
32
-0.57
 
49
-8.34
2,219
 
27
-0.29
 
47
-6.92
1,345
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.08
 
-5.37
550,696
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.88
 
-5.39
190,776,800
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2022. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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